(Author’s note: This commentary appeared on Pambazuka.org on May 29, 2014 as part of a mid-century outlook on possible scenarios in Africa. I make my “predictions” debating myself as a political scientist and a defense lawyer.)
Is there light at the end of the tunnel for the “Dark Continent”?
“Making predictions is hard. Especially about the future”, said the famous American baseball player, Lawrence “Yogi” Berra facetiously. Likewise, predicting whether there is light at the end of the tunnel in 2050 and beyond is hard. Especially about the Dark Continent. Making predictions about Africa based on the facts of the last half century will surely make one a doomsayer. Not looking in the rear view mirror would make one a soothsayer. I am neither.
As a political scientist, I am grudgingly guided by the reputed “founding father” of “modern” political science, Nicolo Machiavelli, who instructed that “Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times.” Machiavelli took a dim view of the human capacity to learn from mistakes. He must have believed man is doomed to incorrigibility.




