Meles Zenawi, the cerebral ruler of Ethiopia
for the last 21 years, is a man with many reputations. Celebrated by
donors as a visionary philosopher-king who has brought development to
his impoverished country of 75 million people, his domestic critics have
condemned him as an iron-fisted dictator.
Meles, now 57, came to
power in 1991 after his Tigray People's Liberation Front waged a
successful 30-year war, alongside the Eritrean People's Liberation
Front, that toppled the dictatorship of the Soviet-backed Mengistu Haile
Mariam.
The new leader strongly supported Eritrea's independence
in 1993, but within five years the former allies were fighting a bloody
conflict that lasted between 1998 and 2000 and resulted in nearly
100,000 deaths.
Matters were not all peaceful at home either. In
2005, when the opposition won 23 seats in parliamentary elections, the
regime reacted harshly, killing 200 protestors and locking up 30,000
opponents. Some were later tried for treason.
Five years later,
continued repression – including a clampdown on the media and
foreign-funded NGOs, as well as a draconian anti-terrorism bill –
combined with a divided opposition to ensure that his ruling Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front won 99.6% of votes. More
opposition arrests followed these polls.
Meles' personal
popularity is, however, hard to gauge in a country in which the press
and civil society are closely monitored. He has pledged to step down in
2015, but broke a similar promise in 2010.
While in power, Meles
has pursued a pragmatic course in a coffee-dominated economy, 30% of
which is still propped-up by foreign aid. Ethiopia has seen impressive
annual growth of about 9% over the last decade, with the number of rural
schools and clinics increasing and child mortality dropping.
Yet
critics point out that villagers have been forcibly relocated to make
way for foreign investors, and that widespread poverty and food
insecurity are still prevalent.
Meles has raised his international profile by representing Africa
on the global stage, such as at the G8 and G20. He has maintained close
ties with the US, with Washington benefitting from Addis Ababa's
experience and intelligence in fighting Islamist networks.
Meles
supported the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and has allowed Washington to
send drones into Somalia from its territory. Ethiopia itself sent troops
into Somalia to fight anti-American Islamists between 2006 and 2009,
and forms the backbone of the UN peacekeeping mission in Sudan's
volatile Abyei region.
Addis Ababa is also the largest African
recipient of British aid. Meles has, however, avoided dependence on the
west by obtaining Chinese assistance for building roads, railways, and
dams, and championing a Chinese "model" of development.
Meles has
dominated domestic politics to the extent that a power vacuum on his
departure seems certain. No other political figure has the stature to
hold together the fractious ruling coalition. His deputy, since 2010, is
Hailemariam Desalegn, an engineer who also serves as foreign minister.
It is, however, unlikely that this succession will be smooth and much
political uncertainty lies ahead.
Meles has ruled Ethiopia without rival and, ultimately, will be remembered as a pragmatic autocrat.
•
Dr Adekeye Adebajo is the executive director of the Centre for Conflict
Resolution in Cape Town, South Africa, and author of The Curse of
Berlin: Africa After the Cold War (Hurst, 2010)
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