Wednesday, August 8, 2012 @ 08:08 AM ed
By Amanuel Biedemariam
On its 28th of July report Ethiopian
Satellite Television (ESAT) described the impact of the absence of Meles
Zenawi and his leadership. Contrary to what Sebhat Nega and Bereket
Simon portrayed, ESAT reported those middle management are in suspense
all over. The poorly explained absence of Meles has created deep tension
that could tear the country apart. Rumors are abundant about emergency
meetings. Lack of information has made high-ranking bureaucrats nervous
and unable to run the daily affairs of the nation. According to the
report, these groups are in a panic mode desperately seeking to get
their families and dollars out thus creating a vacuum.
The absence of Meles is one obvious
dilemma and a minefield the junta is trying to figure out how to address
carefully. For the author the question is not what Meles’s crime
partners are doing. The criminals will do all they can to retain the
status-quo. According to Sibhat Nega, the junta runs the country in
accordance to their standard practices that is, even if a leader goes
down, they have a method in place that enables them to run the nations
affairs uninterrupted. Hence, Sibhat inadvertently admitted that the
junta runs Ethiopia in disregard to the wishes of the public hence
minimized the absence of Meles. Therefore, it is more important to focus
on what this criminal junta is trying to attain, which is the
continuation of the defunct regime, rather than the life or death of the
criminal Meles.
Dead or alive, the prevailing assumption
is that Meles is done politically. That being the case, publicly, there
are discussions of many succession possible scenarios. Former TPLF
strongman Meles’s crime partner Seeye Abraha told Voice of America
(VoA), “They don’t have a system” [of leadership succession], Seeye
said. “This is a crisis situation and the dust has not settled.”
On the other side, former US Ambassador
to Ethiopia David Shinn told Voice of America, “I would be willing to
bet very good money that he has been planning for some way to deal with
this issue in order to insure some kind of reasonable succession of
government in Ethiopia.”
Some speculate that the army could take
over; some say there will be smooth transition of leadership from within
the ranks. Regardless, there is assumption that there will be change of
leadership and that is creating unease for the stakeholders. The sad
part is, the people of Ethiopia will not have a say in this transition.
The US is key stakeholder and, the glaring question is what the role of
the US going to be is?
Thence, the question is what does the US
know about Meles’s whereabouts and condition? Is it possible for the US
not to know what is going on with Meles? The answer, the US knows
exactly what is going on with Meles! And that automatically leads to the
question, what is the US doing?
Obviously, the embassy in Addis is
working overtime as it tries to do many things at once. The key is to
act behind the scene, to give appearance that this is Ethiopian led
process.
Firstly, the key is to maintain
stability. For the US, Ethiopia is the most important country in the
region, if not Africa. Ethiopia works as a lynchpin to US agendas in the
region interlinked to US’s South Sudan and Sudan agenda; linked with US
Somalia agenda and US agendas related to the region. Ethiopia’s role in
forwarding US interest vis-à-vis the region is indispensable militarily
and politically playing a pivotal role in forwarding US agendas in the
region.
Secondly, to ensure US agendas, there
needs to be smooth transition. Contrary to public rhetoric about
democracy and transparency, the US puts US interests above all.
Therefore, there will be a hidden struggle to ensure a transition that
satisfies US interests.
In the meantime, the US needs to quite
things down, identify a viable candidate, groom him or her, ensure a
consensus amongst the key actors and, place him or her in Menelik
Palace. Once that is in place, sell the leader to the people of Ethiopia
and the international community.
Regardless of what the people of
Ethiopia think about the TPLF/EPRDF’s succession process or lack
thereof, nothing works without the blessing of the US Embassy in Addis.
That is what those interested need to understand. The question is, how
successful will the US be in this patchwork.
After decades of selling the
international community how important Meles Zenawi is to the stability
of Ethiopia and the region; placing him in positions of international
influence and exposure; after providing the financial means and
political cover and after over two decades of enabling tyranny, the US
and its allies do not have a succession plan on place. In short, they
gambled everything on Meles at the expense of the people of Ethiopia,
the region and certainly America’s long-term interest. The crimes, the
genocides all over Ethiopia and Somalia and criminal violations of
international laws Meles Zenawi committed are collateral damages in the
eyes of Western nations that funded the atrocities.
The reality is, instability looms large
and US interest in the region is with Meles in Belgium in critical
condition. The ill-conceived agenda ignored the people and the region
placing more importance on one individual and that is proving costly.
Noting the obvious
Meles Zenawi is or was the nemesis,
scourge and curse of the region. The damages he has done to Ethiopia and
the region is long term. Ethiopia finds itself in precarious place
where no one knows the trigger to the undercurrent that will shake the
core of the nation for good. This will go down in history as one of the
greatest unpunished crimes against humanity.
Yet, his departure brings new
opportunities for the people of Ethiopia and the region. That takes
understanding of the opportunities and willingness to rewrite history by
creating a spirit of collaboration and working for the common good of
the people of the region.
Like many in the region, I have been
following the developments related to the health and life of tyrant
Meles Zenawi keenly. I read many articles, listened to news accounts and
interviews related to the matter. Surprisingly, the views are
consistent that the majority’s desire to see the tyrant’s days finished.
My motivation to write this piece was heightened after I read an
article with the header, “Post-Meles Possible Scenarios.”
After describing how different post
Meles scenarios can unfold, after knocking and elevating the issues,
countries and personalities in accordance with his views the article
concluded with the following, “Lastly, the direct intervention and real
pressure of Western powers can have a serious impact in the direction of
facilitating the creation of a government representative of all
contending forces. Their pressure can thwart the scenario of military
coup or of a refurbishing rule of the TPLF; it can even prevent the
start of a popular uprising. The two basic conditions for Western
pressure to be effective are: (1) Western powers themselves must show a
united front and act as honest brokers; (2) the opposition must speak
with one voice and credibly argue in favor of a transitional inclusive
government. This last possibility is by far the best course, for it
alone promises a peaceful transition.” Emphasis mine.
I found the above statement repulsive.
Obviously, the author is vying for a position in a western-brokered
process essentially, the continuation of the status-quo. Otherwise, he
will know Western powers do not need his invitation, they are there
invitation or not.
The end of Meles’s regime is precisely
the opportunity that the people of Ethiopia and the region need to
expose the negative role the West plays at the expense of the region.
The West had ample time and opportunity to foster inclusive and, just
process that encourages cooperation in Ethiopia and amongst the people
of the region. Instead, they sent President Jimmy Carter to bless a
fraudulent election. It is also telling when Ambassador Shinn “would be
willing to bet very good money that he [Meles] has been planning” for
his succession is not saying much about a transparent process. The
ambassador is betting on his people’s ability per se.
Conclusion
The demise of the criminal regime is
here. However, it does not mean that it will be easy to scrap-clean the
grime that it will leave behind. Above all, however, it is an
opportunity to bring peace, cooperation and prosperity for the people of
the region by trusting each other to bring indigenous solutions to our
issues rather than believing strangers that foment hate. It is time to
collectively lead and bring, to the process, those who are partners
rather than masters that exploit. It is possible to come together as
people of the region and make our voices heard collectively in the quest
of bringing peace and solutions for our people that have endured untold
suffering for decades. We have to believe on us and each other to bring
humanity back to us. That is the only choice left and it is about time.
The alternative should not be entertained.
Awetnayu@hotmail.com
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